Profiting from an inefficient association football gambling market: Prediction, risk and uncertainty using Bayesian networks

Profiting from an inefficient association football gambling market: Prediction, risk and uncertainty using Bayesian networks

We present a Bayesian network (BN) model for forecasting Association Football match outcomes. Both objective and subjective information are considered for prediction, and we demonstrate how probabilities transform at each level of model component, whereby predictive distributions follow hierarchical levels of Bayesian inference. The model was used to generate forecasts for each match of the 201...

Bayesian networks for prediction, risk assessment and decision making in an inefficient Association Football gambling market

Profiting from arbitrage and odds biases of the European football gambling market

A gambling market is usually described as being inefficient if there are one or more betting strategies that generate profit, at a consistent rate, as a consequence of exploiting market flaws. This paper examines the online European football gambling market based on 14 European football leagues over a period of seven years, from season 2005/06 to 2011/12 inclusive, and takes into consideration ...

Project Portfolio Risk Response Selection Using Bayesian Belief Networks

Risk identification, impact assessment, and response planning constitute three building blocks of project risk management. Correspondingly, three types of interactions could be envisioned between risks, between impacts of several risks on a portfolio component, and between several responses. While the interdependency of risks is a well-recognized issue, the other two types of interactions remai...

Information Security Risk Assessment under Uncertainty Using Dynamic Bayesian Networks

The risk management process is the key task of every decision maker in an organization. This risk management process should be carried out periodically to review the security of the information assets in the organization. So if this process is to be efficient, the organization should first prioritize the information assets and should employ risk management procedure to avoid potential loss. But...